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Sports betting systems : ウィキペディア英語版
Sports betting systems

Sports betting systems are sets of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge.
Sportsbooks use systems in their analysis to set more accurate odds. Therefore the novice gambler may believe that using a system will always work, but it is the general consensus that at some point the oddsmakers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. Very short-lived systems are called trends. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends to produce systems.
== Betting on systems ==
Systems can be deceiving. Any sample space can be constrained enough with meaningless criteria to create the illusion of a profitable betting system. For example, a coin can be flipped with heads being home teams and tails being road teams. Heads and tails each have a 50% probability of landing but if the amount of flips is limited to a small number, it is conceivable to create the illusion of predicting heads will come up 75% of the time.
That, and that sportsbooks adjust their odds according to the systems, makes it difficult to follow systems indefinitely. The sportsbooks are slower to adjust the odds in some sports versus other sports depending on the number of games played and the amount of money they take in from bettors.
Betting systems based on statistical analysis have been around for a while, however they have not always been well known. One group that was known for their accurate predictions was called The Computer Group. They formed in Las Vegas in 1980 and successfully wagered on college football and basketball games for years making millions. Michael Kent, co-founder and one of the lesser-known individuals of the group, would use his computer software to run through massive amounts of data, which then provided the group's network of bettors with useful information. The network of bettors would then bet on games in which they had a statistical advantage (as determined by the software). Billy Walters, who was profiled on ''60 Minutes'',〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM )〕 is the most famous member of the group.
Sports betting systems have not always been well trusted or liked by bettors. The stigma is that a sporting event has too many intangibles that a machine can't predict. However, things have begun to change recently as owners of teams have begun to take notice of the value in statistics. Front offices have hired noted statistical analysts such as Jeff Sagarin.
Books like ''Sabermetrics'' by Bill James, and ''Basketball on Paper'' by Dean Oliver, have begun to bring detailed statistical analysis to the forefront of sports betting systems. Blogs are now being written more frequently about the topic and sports handicapping services have made claims of great success using sports betting systems from advanced statistical research.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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